Barack Obama's Energy Plan

So America has spoken and Obama is the word. Now that the national post-election-day party celebrating the Obama victory is somewhat over, some fears emerge foreshadowing a lingering hangover that may impact us all. America is deeply mired in a very difficult economic situation. Unfortunately, it seems Senator Obama’s energy plan, as presented on his Website, could make matters considerably worse.

Obama’s energy policy seems to be centered on renewable energy. It is, after all, a bandwagon with very limited seating available. But the president-elect will soon have the power to make all of us pay for his environmental ideas. Foremost among his plans is the desire to eliminate any new development of coal generation despite the need for new generation to address growing electrical demands. In fact, he has said he would use carbon caps to “bankrupt” any companies seeking to build coal-fired power plants. (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hdi4onAQBWQ) And he wants to have ten percent of the nation’s electricity generated from renewable resources by the year 2012.

America has about a million megawatts of electric generation capacity. Currently, about 106,500 MW are from renewable resources. But 77,000 MW of those are from conventional hydroelectric. The darlings of every environmental group, wind and solar account for a very small percentage of the country’s electric generation. Wind generation totals 15,600 MW and solar only 498 MW. Without the hydro generation, the total renewable capacity is about 2.5% of the total generation, a long way from ten percent.

So how will Barack Obama find 100,000 MW of renewable generation in three years? And where will it be located? Solar is just not a reasonable option, with costs exceeding sixty cents per kWh. Wind generation is only viable in limited areas of the country where average wind velocities are greater than 12 mph. (http://www.windpoweringamerica.gov/pdfs/wind_maps/us_windmap.pdf) That eliminates most of the country and most of the areas near population centers except California and the New England coast. At ideal wind speeds, larger wind turbines generate 1.8 MW of electrical capacity. They are also 260 feet tall. So if we can site, manufacture, and erect 55,000 turbines in three years, we’re home free… well, assuming the wind always blows. I don’t know that I would want to be in the hospital on life support on a really calm day.

So is Obama really committed to his energy plan? Is this symbolism over substance? If the track record in Illinois, his home state, is any indication, the effort may come up short. Despite having large rural areas with decent average wind speeds, Illinois has only about 700 MW of wind generation. Conversely, Texas has 4,800MW of wind capacity. Yet that equates to only about two percent of the Lone Star State’s total capacity needs.

Will Obama’s energy plan find success? If electric customers, including America’s struggling manufacturing base, can stand replacing affordable coal generation, currently priced nationally at less than ten cents per kWh, with wind generation, priced at twenty cents or more per kWh, the plan might work. But if electric utilities are forced to abandon coal and no viable replacement emerges, Americans accustomed to reliable electricity may suddenly be faced with darkness. Wouldn’t it be a shame for President Obama’s press conferences to go unseen on days that the wind doesn’t blow?